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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: Upward Rebound Holds Caution

The risk aversion caused by the geopolitical conflict in Israel could lead to further upside for the safe-haven US dollar, but easing tensions could mean taking profits in the dollar's recent gains.

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During last week's trading, bulls tried to relatively control the performance of the price of the currency pair Euro against the US dollar EUR/USD, while temporarily calming the demand for the US dollar as a safe haven in light of the successive geopolitical tensions in the Middle East region and fears of its impact on the future of global economic growth. However, the rebound gains for the EUR/USD did not exceed the resistance level of 1.0616 before it closed the week’s trading stable around the 1.0594 level, awaiting anything new.

  • On the economic side, the world's largest economy may have seen growth at its fastest pace in nearly two years during the third quarter on the back of steady US consumers, a challenge facing US Federal Reserve officials who are debating whether additional policy tightening is needed.
  • US gross domestic product advanced at an annual pace of 4.3% from July to September, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
  • This growth demonstrates that the United States remains the global economic power considering the recession in Europe and Asia's competition with faltering China. 

In consideration of the fact that personal consumption, the main driver of the US economy, is expected to grow at a rate of 4%. Resilient demand is a test of the political skills of Federal Reserve officials after nearly two years of rising US interest rates. nearby, while inflation is still far from its peak, price pressures are still proceeding at twice the speed of target. Next Thursday's GDP report will not be enough to push the Fed toward a US rate hike in November, but continued spending momentum in the fourth quarter is likely to increase the odds of additional tightening at the start of the year. 

Moreover, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said at the Economic Club of the United States: “Additional evidence that growth continues above trend, or that Labor market tightness is no longer abating, could jeopardize further progress in inflation and could call for further tighten monetary policy.” On another level, US September income and spending data released on Friday will give a sense of momentum in household demand and inflation ahead of the fourth quarter. Forecasters expect a 3.7% increase in the core personal consumption expenditures price index, one of the Fed's Favorite measures because it excludes often volatile food and energy costs. Finally, that would be the smallest annual gain since May 2021 and is consistent with modest progress in inflation.

The price of the EUR/USD formed higher lows and higher lows connected to an upward channel that has remained steadfast since mid-October. The price is in the middle of the correction after testing the channel resistance. The Fibonacci retracement tool shows potential support levels where buyers are waiting. The price fell to the 50% level at 1.0572, which is in line with the important mid-channel area. A larger pullback could reach the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.0562 or the bottom of the channel near the minor psychological mark of 1.0550. If any of these levels hold as support, the EUR/USD could recover to a high of 1.0616 or higher. However, technical indicators point to further downward pressure. So far, the 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA to confirm that the general trend remains bearish or there is a chance to break through the support levels. Moving below the channel support may lead to a reversal of the uptrend.

At the same time, the stochastic indicator moves down to indicate that selling pressure is effective, and that the oscillator has a little more room to head down before it reflects oversold levels. The RSI has more ground to cover before signalling exhaustion among sellers, so bears can stay in control until the oscillator reaches the oversold zone. During today's trading session, there are no important reports from the economy of the Eurozone and the United States of America, so the EUR/USD may take signals from the general sentiment. The risk aversion caused by the geopolitical conflict in Israel could lead to further upside for the safe-haven US dollar, but easing tensions could mean taking profits in the dollar's recent gains.

EUR/USD chart

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